Track record
Every published signal, scored the same way: hit target, hit stop, or expired at day 30.
Educational publication — not investment advice. Read the full disclaimer →
Rolling 90 days
as of 2026-08-25⚠ Small sample (1closed < 30) — read as suggestive, not predictive.
Weekly outcomes
One bar per week of issued signals — gray means still open.
Recent activity
Newest first — tap a ticker for the full price path.
- JBHT—hit stop-6.1%(held 0d)closed Aug 24
How to read these numbers
- Win rate counts a signal as a win only if it hit its full target price — a signal that closed at 90% of target counts as a loss.
- 95% CI (Wilson interval) — the range the true win rate probably lives in. Tight CI = reliable number; wide CI = sample too small to be predictive.
- Success ladder — cumulative: reached-25%+ includes reached-50%+, and so on up to hit-target. Shows the near-misses strict win rate hides. Avg path compresses the same shape into one number.
- Avg P&L assumes you traded each signal at exactly the entry / stop / target prices. Real returns will be worse after slippage and fees — treat it as an upper bound.
Changes to how picks are scored
22 Aug 2026 — Conviction is now the setup score alone
Conviction used to multiply the setup score by each ticker’s historical “path completion.” That history came entirely from a one-off backtest whose own exit rules had been tuned on the same data, and it was never replaced by live results. Tested against subsequent 21-day returns it was actively counter-productive, so it has been removed. Conviction is now exactly the setup score: trend, momentum, entry location and risk quality.
Because conviction is recalculated each time a page loads, picks published before this date now display their setup score too. If an older email shows a different number for the same pick, that is this change — the pick itself was not revised. Per-ticker track records have been removed from the site and emails for the same reason.
22 Aug 2026 — Signals are now retained long enough to close
Published signals were being deleted after three days, while a signal needs about six weeks to reach its target, stop, or expiry. No live outcome had ever been recorded as a result. Retention is now 90 days, so the results on this page will begin filling in from the first cohort onward.