Track record
How our signals actually perform, tracked weekly. Live signals count for the “can I trust this with real money?” question — the backtested baseline is shown alongside for reference but suffers look-ahead bias (the strategy was tuned on that same dataset), so its numbers overstate future live performance.
Educational publication, not investment advice.
Halal Stock Picks is a financial publication. We are not a registered investment adviser and do not provide personalized recommendations. All signals are algorithmic, based on public price data and technical indicators, and apply equally to every reader. Past performance does not guarantee future results — investing involves risk of loss. The AAOIFI-based halal screen is a best-effort application of public guidelines and is not a substitute for review by a certified Shariah board.
Live signals — rolling 90 days
as of 2026-07-11No closed signals yet in this window. First live outcomes start reporting ~30 trading days after the first pipeline run.
Weekly outcomes — live signals
Each bar = signals issued that week (Monday-based ISO week). Recent weeks are gray-heavy by design — signals need up to 30 trading days to hit target, stop, or expire.
Live vs backtest — all time
Backtest = ~800 days of historical signals seeded once from Yahoo bars, subject to look-ahead bias. Live = signals actually published by the daily pipeline. As live outcomes accrue, they should be the number you weight.
Live (all time)
Backtest (all time)
Weekly outcomes — backtested baseline
Same view over the seeded backtest data. Every bar is closed (backtest signals had time to fully mature during seeding), so no gray section.
How to read this
- Win rate alone is a coarse metric — it counts a signal as a win only if it hit its full target price. A signal that closed at 90% of target counts as a loss under win-rate.
- Success ladder — the "Reached X%+" rows are CUMULATIVE: reached-25%+ is a superset of reached-50%+, which is a superset of reached-75%+, which is a superset of hit-target. Reveals near-misses the strict win rate hides — useful if you take partial profits before the full target. The avg path completion summary captures the same shape as one number.
- 95% CI (Wilson interval) — the range the true win rate probably lives in, given the sample. A tight CI (e.g., ±3%) means the number is reliable; a wide one (±20%) means the sample is too small to be predictive.
- Avg P&L is the mean return across closed signals as if you traded each one at exactly the entry / stop / target prices. Real returns will be worse due to slippage and fees — treat this as an upper bound.
- Backtest look-ahead risk— the current strategy’s parameters (2:1 reward-to-risk cap, 30-day frame, etc.) were tuned on this same backtest data. Live results are the honest test; expect them to be materially worse than backtest.